Uncertainty

Uncertainty, or incertitude, means we don’t have all the information. This can happen when we try to guess what will happen in the future, measure something that can’t be known perfectly, or face something unknown. It is very important for making decisions.

Uncertainty appears in many areas of life and study. It shows up in places like insurance, philosophy, physics, statistics, economics, entrepreneurship, finance, medicine, psychology, sociology, engineering, metrology, meteorology, ecology, and information science. It often comes from not being able to see everything clearly, from changes that happen randomly, or simply from not knowing or caring enough about certain details.

Concepts

Uncertainty means not knowing for sure what will happen or what something really is. It happens when we don’t have all the information we need. This can be about predicting the future, like guessing if it will rain tomorrow.

People who study decisions, statistics, and other numbers have special ways to think about uncertainty. They talk about risk, which is when we can guess the chances of different things happening, even if we’re not 100% sure.

One famous thinker, Frank Knight, said that uncertainty is different from risk. With risk, we can measure the chances, but with uncertainty, we can’t.

In the media

When scientists share their ideas with the public, it can be hard for everyone to understand each other. Scientists might not always explain things clearly, and people can interpret information in different ways. For example, when scientists disagree because they used different methods, people might think there is no agreement, even when there actually is.

Journalists who write about science sometimes make things seem more certain or more unsure than they really are. They might give equal attention to scientists with different opinions without explaining what most scientists believe. They might also make science seem like it always has clear answers, when there is often some uncertainty. This can happen because of how news stories are written or because some groups want to promote certain ideas.

Applications

Uncertainty is important in many parts of life and work. In games like gambling, chance is a big part of the fun. In scientific modelling, scientists know that predictions about the future can only be made within a range of possible values.

In computer science, especially in data management, uncertain information is common and can be stored in special databases. When making plans or solving problems, uncertainty helps us understand that we might not always control the final result, as seen in scenario optimization and stochastic optimization. In weather forecasting, experts often tell us how sure they are about their predictions.

In science and engineering, uncertainty is linked to error. When we measure things like distance or temperature, there is always some uncertainty depending on the tools we use. This uncertainty continues through any calculations we do. In physics, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle is a key idea in modern quantum mechanics.

Uncertainty also appears in engineering, art, and economics. For example, in making art, uncertainty can create interesting themes or challenges for the artist. In economics, uncertainty is different from risk. While risk has known chances for each outcome, like flipping a coin, uncertainty involves situations where we don’t even know the chances of different outcomes. This kind of uncertainty is also found when people invest in financial markets like the stock market.

Philosophy

Main article: Philosophical skepticism

In Western philosophy, Pyrrho was one of the first thinkers to deeply consider uncertainty. This led to schools of thought called Pyrrhonism and Academic Skepticism. These ideas include concepts like aporia and acatalepsy, which help us understand uncertainty.

Today, philosophers such as William MacAskill from Oxford University discuss Moral Uncertainty. This is about being unsure of the best actions to take when we don't have clear answers about what is right or wrong. It also examines how we should behave when we are uncertain about which moral ideas are correct.

Artificial intelligence

Uncertainty in artificial intelligence means a computer or robot does not have all the information it needs to make a decision. This can happen when it tries to guess what will happen in the future, understand measurements that have already been taken, or deal with things that are unknown.

Artificial intelligence often works in places that are hard to see, always changing, or very complicated. Because of this, it can be unsure about what will happen next or how to solve a problem. This uncertainty is important because it affects how we make decisions, whether we are humans or computers trying to think and learn.