Ageing of Europe

The ageing of Europe, also called the greying of Europe, is an important change happening across the continent. It means that fewer babies are being born and people are living longer, which makes the population look different. As more people grow old and fewer are working, this creates challenges for countries.

In the past, many governments tried to encourage families to have more children. They believed this would help keep taxes lower, boost the economy, and provide enough people for the military.

Today, almost every country in Europe is seeing this shift toward an older population. This change will affect many areas, including how societies care for older people and support those who are still working.

Trends

Main article: Historical population of the world

Experts have noticed big changes happening in Europe’s population. They say that by the year 2050, there will be fewer workers and more people who are retired. This means there will be only two workers for every person who is retired, instead of four today.

People in Europe are also getting older. One expert thinks that by 2050, the average age of people in Europe will be about 52 years old, compared to 45 years old in America. This shift will affect many areas like jobs, healthcare, and support for older people.

Women in Europe tend to live longer than men. On average, women live to be about 81 years old, while men live to be about 74 years old. This difference will continue to grow in the years to come.

Causes

Main article: Population ageing

Population ageing in Europe happens because of three main reasons: fewer babies being born, people living longer, and movement between countries.

Europe has fewer babies now than before. After World War II, many families had lots of children, creating a big group of people who are now older. But today, families are having fewer children, so there are fewer young people compared to older people.

People in Europe are also living longer. Doctors and hospitals are getting better at keeping people healthy, so many people can expect to live well into their 80s and 90s. This means there are more older people around.

Moving between countries can change these numbers too. When younger people move into a country, it can help balance the number of older people. But when younger people leave, it can make the ageing problem worse.

Effects

Populations in Europe react in different ways to demographic changes, depending on what is happening in their countries. Both ageing, emigration and immigration can cause anxiety in populations of individual countries. Demographic studies and resultant reports conducted by the European Commission point to the declining birth rate of the population of the native European peoples, which would need to be reversed from its present level of about 1.4 in order to preclude a population decline of the native European peoples by nearly half in each generation, back to a replacement level of 2.1.

The ageing population in Europe had multiple consequences on the changes in the political and economic narratives and discourses. As the proportion of individuals in the workforce declines relative to those relying on welfare systems, significant financial challenges emerge. This has led to concerns about the rising costs of pensions, healthcare, and social care. However, older individuals also contribute to the economy and society in various ways, such as continuing to work, caring for family members, and participating in community activities.

Countries

Belgium

Main article: Demographics of Belgium

The International Monetary Fund predicted in 2007 that Belgium's population will grow by 5% by 2050 because of immigration, higher birth rates, and people living longer. However, the number of older people in Belgium is expected to grow by more than 25%, making up over 63% of the country by 2050.

The Belgian government spent part of its money on pensions and health care. By 2050, it's expected that more money will go to these areas. The number of people over 65 in Belgium is expected to grow from 16% to 25% by 2050. In 2017, about 24.6% of Belgium's people were over 60, and this is expected to rise to 32.4% by 2050. People in Belgium are living longer, with women expected to live about 83 years and men about 78 years between 2010 and 2015.

Finland

Main article: Demographics of Finland

Finland has one of the oldest populations in Europe. The number of people over 65 will grow from 20% in the late 2010s to 29% by 2060. Not many people over 61 in Finland are working, and the government wants to change this. With fewer babies being born, the number of working-age people will drop a lot by 2050. Some areas of Finland will have many more older people than others.

By 2019, Finland's population was expected to start shrinking by 2031 and be about 100,000 less than in 2019 by 2050, if immigration stays the same.

France

Main article: Demographics of France

France had the highest birth rate in the European Union in 2007 and is expected to have the largest population in the EU by 2050, with about 75 million people. This is because of government help for families with children. In 2017, about 25.7% of France's people were over 60, and this is expected to rise to 32.2% by 2050. Women in France are expected to live about 85 years and men about 79 years between 2010 and 2015.

Germany

Main articles: Germans, Demographics of Germany, and Social issues in Germany

With over 84 million people in 2024, Germany is the most populous country in the European Union. But birth rates are very low, and the population is expected to shrink to between 65 and 70 million by 2060. In some areas, especially in the east, people are moving away, and cities are planning to make space for parks. In 2017, about 28% of Germany's people were over 60, and this is expected to rise to 37.6% by 2050. Women are expected to live about 83 years and men about 78 years between 2010 and 2015.

Italy

Main article: Demographics of Italy

Italy may need to raise the retirement age or let in many new people to keep enough workers. Many Italian women do not have children, and many only have one. In the region of Liguria, there are many more older people than young people, and some schools have closed. The city of Genoa is shrinking fast. The Italian government offers money to families with children and lets in more workers. In 2017, about 29.4% of Italy's people were over 60, and this is expected to rise to 40.3% by 2050. Women are expected to live about 85 years and men about 80 years between 2010 and 2015.

Poland

Main article: Demographics of Poland

Poland may lose about 15% of its people by mid-century. By 2050, the population is expected to drop to 32 million because fewer babies are being born. In 2016, Poland started giving families money for each child, but this did not increase birth rates much.

Portugal

Main article: Demographics of Portugal

In 1994, about 13.1% of Portugal's people were over 65. By 2017, this had risen to 27.9%, and it's expected to be 41.7% by 2050. People in Portugal are living longer, with women expected to live about 83 years and men about 77 years between 2010 and 2015. Some studies predict Portugal's population may shrink a lot by 2050 if birth rates stay low.

Spain

Main article: Demographics of Spain

Spain's birth rates have been low for years, ranging from 1.23 to 1.45 children per woman. By 2050, half of Spain's people may be over 55, making it one of the oldest countries in the world. In 2017, about 25.3% of Spain's people were over 60, and this is expected to rise to 41.9% by 2050. Women are expected to live about 85 years and men about 79 years between 2010 and 2015.

United Kingdom

Main article: Ageing of the United Kingdom

Main article: Demographics of the United Kingdom

The UK had a birth rate of 1.68 in 2018. By 2050, about one in four people in the UK will be over 65. In 2019, about 18.5% of people were over 65, and this is expected to rise to a quarter by 2050. In 2020, people in the UK were expected to live about 79.4 years for men and 83.1 years for women.

Other regions

Russia

Main articles: Demographics of Russia and Russian Cross

Russia's birth rate is currently 1.7 children per woman, which is still lower than the level needed to keep the population stable. The number of people in Russia has gone down since 1991, from about 148 million to around 143 million in 2013. Experts have warned that if things don’t change, the population could drop even more by the year 2050.

In recent years, efforts have been made to improve this situation. By 2009, Russia saw its first population growth in 15 years as death rates fell and birth rates rose. The government hopes that with a better economy, the population will stabilize and start growing again.

Central Europe and the former Soviet Union

Main articles: Demographics of Georgia (country) and Demographics of Ukraine

The World Bank has warned that countries like Georgia and Ukraine may lose a large part of their populations by 2027. In places like Poland and Slovenia, the number of older people is growing fast.