2024 United States presidential election

Presidential elections were held in the United States on November 5, 2024. The Republican ticket of former president Donald Trump and Ohio junior senator JD Vance defeated the Democratic ticket of incumbent vice president Kamala Harris and Minnesota governor Tim Walz.

The election was important because it decided who would lead the country. Joe Biden, the previous president, had planned to run again but dropped out in July 2024. This led to Kamala Harris becoming the Democratic nominee. Donald Trump ran again after losing in 2020 and won the election, becoming the second U.S. president to serve two nonconsecutive terms.

Background

In 2020, Donald Trump tried to be president again but lost to Joe Biden. Kamala Harris from California became vice president, working with Biden.

Trump was the first president ever to face being impeached twice but still tried to run again in 2024. Even though some states tried to say he couldn’t be on the ballot, the U.S. Supreme Court said only Congress could decide if he was eligible.

Foreign countries like China, Russia, and Iran tried to influence the election through online campaigns and misinformation. There were also debates about voter rolls and who should be allowed to vote.

Donald Trump faced many legal issues, including being found responsible for harmful business practices and making false statements. There were also concerns about the health and age of both Trump and Biden during the campaign. Some people worried about possible political violence around the election.

Nominations

Republican Party

Main articles: 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries and 2024 Republican Party presidential candidates

Donald Trump began his campaign for the Republican Party nomination a week after the 2022 midterm elections. He was seen as an early leader. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was initially considered the main challenger to Trump. On May 24, 2023, DeSantis announced his candidacy on Twitter in a conversation with Elon Musk, the social media company's CEO. By July 2023, polls showed Trump leading with 52 percent and DeSantis with 15 percent.

After Trump won the Iowa caucuses by a large margin, DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out and supported Trump. The only other major candidate left was Nikki Haley, but she struggled to gain support. On March 6, 2024, after winning only one primary out of fifteen on Super Tuesday, Haley ended her campaign. On March 12, 2024, Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee. Trump was slightly injured in an assassination attempt on July 13, 2024. On July 15, 2024, Trump announced that Senator JD Vance of Ohio would be his running mate. On July 18, 2024, Trump accepted the nomination at the Republican National Convention for the third time in a row.

Nominees

Main articles: Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign, 2024 Republican Party vice presidential candidate selection, and 2024 Republican National Convention

Withdrawn candidates

Democratic Party

Main articles: 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries and 2024 Democratic Party presidential candidates

On April 25, 2023, President Joe Biden announced his re-election campaign, with Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate.

Many people were concerned about Biden's age, as he was the oldest person to become president at age 78. Some Democrats thought he should not run again because of his age. Despite this, Biden easily won the Democratic nomination on March 12, 2024. However, after a poor debate performance in June 2024, Biden withdrew from the race on July 21, 2024, and endorsed Kamala Harris. Harris quickly became the party's presumptive nominee. On August 5, 2024, Democratic National Convention delegates voted to make Harris the party's 2024 presidential nominee. She selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate and accepted the nomination on August 22.

Nominees

Main articles: Kamala Harris 2024 presidential campaign, 2024 Democratic Party vice presidential candidate selection, and 2024 Democratic National Convention

Withdrawn candidates

Third-party and independent candidates

Main article: Third-party and independent candidates for the 2024 United States presidential election

Several independent candidates announced runs for president, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West. Third parties such as the Libertarian Party, Green Party, Party for Socialism and Liberation, Constitution Party, and American Solidarity Party also announced nominees. Kennedy dropped out in August 2024 but remained on the ballot in many states. The No Labels organization stopped trying to run a centrist candidate in April 2024.

With majority ballot access

Libertarian Party

Main articles: 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries, 2024 Libertarian National Convention, and Chase Oliver 2024 presidential campaign

Chase Oliver was chosen as the Libertarian Party nominee on May 26, 2024, at the 2024 Libertarian National Convention. Oliver was also the party's nominee in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia. He achieved ballot access in 47 states and was eligible for write-in votes in the District of Columbia, Illinois, New York, and Tennessee.

Green Party

Main articles: 2024 Green Party presidential primaries, 2024 Green National Convention, and Jill Stein 2024 presidential campaign

Physician and former member of the Lexington Town Meeting, Stein selected academic Butch Ware as her running mate on August 16. Stein achieved ballot access in 38 states and was eligible for write-in votes in seven states.

With partial ballot access

These third-party candidates had ballot access in some states but not enough to win the presidency without a write-in campaign.

• American Solidarity Party: Peter Sonski, Connecticut school board member
• Approval Voting Party: Blake Huber, activist and nominee for president in 2020
• Constitution Party: Randall Terry, anti-abortion activist and perennial candidate
• Independent American Party: Joel Skousen, survivalist and consultant
• Natural Law Party: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., environmental lawyer and author
• Party for Socialism and Liberation: Claudia De la Cruz, political activist
• Prohibition Party: Michael Wood, businessman
• Socialist Equality Party: Joseph Kishore, writer and SEP nominee in 2020
• Socialist Party USA: Bill Stodden, nonprofit executive
• Socialist Workers Party: Rachele Fruit, hotel worker and trade unionist

Independent candidates

The following individual ran independently for president.

• Cornel West, academic, anti-war activist, and public intellectual

Withdrawn candidates

The following individual announced and then suspended their campaign before the election:

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr., environmental lawyer, author, and 2024 Democratic and independent presidential candidate (endorsed Trump)

Campaign issues

Campaign themes

Campaigns focused on different ideas for the country. Kamala Harris talked about "freedom" and "the future." She used her experience to talk about important issues. Donald Trump talked about "retribution" and framed the election as a big battle.

Abortion

Access to abortion was important to many voters. Harris wanted to protect abortion rights, while Trump wanted to leave the decision to each state. Trump also made some confusing and incorrect statements about abortion.

Border security and immigration

Both candidates talked about immigration a lot. Harris wanted strong border security but also a way for people to become citizens. Trump wanted to deport many people and build more border walls. He also made some very strong and upsetting comments about immigrants.

Climate change

Harris supported efforts to fight climate change and clean energy. Trump did not believe in man-made climate change and wanted to increase oil drilling.

Democracy

The election happened after Trump tried to change the results of the last election. Many people were worried about the state of democracy in the country.

Economic issues

The economy was a big issue for voters. Harris wanted to raise taxes on very wealthy people to fund services for others. Trump wanted to cut taxes and regulations to help businesses.

Education

Trump wanted to get rid of the U.S. Department of Education. Harris wanted to raise teachers' wages.

Healthcare issues

Harris wanted to protect and expand healthcare laws from past presidents. Trump wanted to replace them with his own plans.

Foreign policy

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and China's growing power were big topics. Harris wanted to follow the current president's policies, while Trump wanted to change them significantly.

LGBTQ rights

Harris supported LGBTQ+ rights, especially for transgender people. Trump wanted to change policies to limit these rights.

Election-related violence

Assassination attempts on Trump

Main articles: Attempted assassination of Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and Attempted assassination of Donald Trump in Florida

In July 2024, Donald Trump was hurt during an event in Pennsylvania when someone shot at him from far away. The person was stopped, but one person nearby was sadly hurt and two others were seriously injured. In September, Trump faced another dangerous moment in Florida when someone tried to shoot him from nearby bushes. Security quickly acted, and no one was hurt, but the person was caught later.

Violence towards election workers

After the 2020 election, many people who help run elections received scary messages and threats. Some even got packages with dangerous substances. To keep them safe, many places added extra security like guards, safety glass, and training.

Violence towards voters

In October and November 2024, there were a few scary moments at voting places. In Florida, a young man was arrested for showing a weapon near voters. In South Carolina, a voter was hurt after an argument about what they were wearing. In New York, someone was arrested for getting into a fight because of a political hat.

Arson of ballot boxes

In late October 2024, fires happened at places where people drop off their ballots in Oregon and Washington, damaging some ballots. Officials had warned that some people might try to harm these places because of strong feelings about the election. In Arizona, a fire in a mail box was not related to the election.

Timeline

Main article: Timeline of the 2024 United States presidential election

The 2024 United States presidential election took place on November 5, 2024. Former President Donald Trump and Senator JD Vance, representing the Republican Party, won against Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Tim Walz from the Democratic Party.

President Joe Biden, also from the Democratic Party, had started as a candidate but was later chosen as the party’s official nominee after winning the primary elections.

Opinion polling and forecasts

Main articles: Nationwide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election and Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election

After problems with polls in the 2020 election, pollsters tried new methods to improve their results for 2024. A report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research said that polls showed the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump was very close across important states and the whole country. However, the polls often did not fully capture how many people would vote for Trump.

Even with these improvements, national polls still did not fully capture Trump's support in 2024. In past elections, polls sometimes did not predict Trump's performance well, especially in certain key states. In 2024, Trump did slightly better than the polls expected, but this was within normal polling ranges. Most polls before the election showed the race was very tight. In important states, Trump did about 3% better than the polls predicted, which is normal.

Polls also did not accurately predict Trump's strength in states that usually vote for either party. For example, in Florida and Texas, polls thought Trump would win by about 7%, but he won by about 13%. In Iowa, one poll showed Harris winning by 3%, but Trump won by 13%. In New Jersey, which was expected to support Harris easily, she only won by 5% after many votes were counted.

Debates

Main article: 2024 United States presidential debates

In 2024, two important debates were planned between the candidates for U.S. president. The first debate happened on June 27 between Biden and Trump in Atlanta, Georgia. Later, after Biden suspended his re-election campaign, Harris and Trump debated on September 10 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. These debates let voters hear the candidates discuss their ideas.

Results

Donald Trump and his running mate JD Vance won the 2024 United States presidential election. They beat Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. Trump got 312 electoral votes, while Harris got 226. He won in all seven swing states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Trump also won the national popular vote with 49.8% of the votes, while Harris got 48.3%.

After the election, Harris called Trump to admit she lost. Trump announced his victory at his home, Mar-a-Lago, and Harris later spoke at Howard University to accept the result.

Electoral results

See also: Third-party and independent candidates for the 2024 United States presidential election

Candidates are listed individually below if they received more than 0.1% of the popular vote. Popular vote totals are from the Federal Election Commission report.

Results by state

Final reports as compiled from the certified vote totals of each state or district.

States that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Arizona
• Georgia
• Michigan
• Nevada
• Pennsylvania
• Wisconsin

Close states

The seven swing states in the 2024 election were the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, as well as the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.

States where the margin of victory was under 1 percentage point (10 electoral votes; all won by Trump):

1. Wisconsin, 0.86% (29,397 votes) – 10 electoral votes

States/districts where the margin of victory was between 1 and 5 percentage points (87 electoral votes; 72 won by Trump, 15 won by Harris):

1. Michigan, 1.42% (80,103 votes) – 15 electoral votes
2. Pennsylvania, 1.71% (120,266 votes) – 19 electoral votes (tipping-point state)
3. Georgia, 2.20% (115,100 votes) – 16 electoral votes
4. New Hampshire, 2.78% (22,965 votes) – 4 electoral votes
5. Nevada, 3.10% (46,008 votes) – 6 electoral votes
6. North Carolina, 3.21% (183,046 votes) – 16 electoral votes
7. Minnesota, 4.24% (137,947 votes) – 10 electoral votes
8. Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, 4.59% (14,636 votes) – 1 electoral vote

States/districts where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10% (46 electoral votes; 12 won by Trump, 34 by Harris):

1. Arizona, 5.53% (187,382 votes) – 11 electoral votes
2. Virginia, 5.78% (260,310 votes) – 13 electoral votes
3. New Jersey, 5.91% (252,498 votes) – 14 electoral votes
4. New Mexico, 6.00% (55,411 votes) – 5 electoral votes
5. Maine, 6.94% (57,514 votes) – 2 electoral votes
6. Maine's 2nd congressional district, 9.03% (33,297 votes) – 1 electoral vote

Red denotes states or congressional districts won by Republican Donald Trump; Blue denotes those won by Democrat Kamala Harris.

County statistics

Counties with highest percentage of Democratic vote:

1. District of Columbia – 90.28%
2. Prince George's County, Maryland – 85.90%
3. Petersburg, Virginia – 85.52%
4. Baltimore, Maryland – 84.55%
5. Oglala Lakota County, South Dakota – 83.83%

Counties with highest percentage of Republican vote:

1. Grant County, Nebraska – 95.90%
2. Roberts County, Texas – 95.63%
3. Borden County, Texas – 95.61%
4. King County, Texas – 95.56%
5. Hayes County, Nebraska – 95.55%

Maps

Results by vote share in each state. Darker shades denote a higher vote share for the winning candidate. This map does not depict the results in Maine or Nebraska's congressional districts, which vote by congressional district and not at-large.

Results by margin of victory in each state

A discontinuous [cartogram](/wiki/Cartogram) of the 2024 United States presidential election, scaled by their Electoral College contribution

A discretized [cartogram](/wiki/Cartogram) of the 2024 United States presidential election using hexagons

Results by county, shaded by winner

Results by county, shaded by winner's vote share

Results by county flips from 2020 to the 2024 presidential election

Swing in county margins from 2020 to the 2024 presidential election

Trend in county margins from 2020 to the 2024 presidential election

Margin swing in each state from 2020 to the 2024 presidential election

Results by congressional district, shaded by winner

Third place winners

Analysis of results

Donald Trump won the 2024 election with 58% of the electoral college votes. This victory was not very large compared to past elections. Trump is the first president since Grover Cleveland to win non-consecutive terms. This election also marked the first time in many years that the incumbent party lost three presidential elections in a row.

Trump is the first Republican to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004. He won 31 states and made gains in many areas, including some that usually vote Democratic. Trump became the oldest person to win a presidential election, at the age of 78. He also chose a new running mate for this election, replacing his previous ones.

Aftermath

Reactions

After the election, many people in the LGBTQ+ community needed extra support. Services that help people feel safe saw much more use during the election week.

Different opinions emerged about why the Democratic candidate lost. Some thought the party did not connect well with many voters. Others felt that issues like prices going up made it hard for the Democratic candidate to win.

Some people falsely claimed the election results were wrong. These claims were not true and were proven incorrect by experts.

Unfortunately, some people sent hurtful messages to Black, Latino, and LGBTQIA students through texts and emails after the election. The people who sent these messages were not identified.

Media analysis

Harris's loss

Harris's loss to Trump was widely discussed by media after the election. Reasons given for the outcome included inflation, issues with immigration, a reaction against the current government, Biden's decision to leave the race late, and the Democratic Party's lack of an open primary process. Democrats debated what went wrong and how the party should move forward.

Electoral environment

According to Gallup, factors favoring Republicans and Trump included low confidence in the economy, more Republicans than Democrats in party affiliation, low national satisfaction, Republicans being favored to handle the economy and immigration, and Biden's low job approval rating. Harris was seen more favorably on character and had advantages on some issues. No sitting government has won when a president had below a 45% approval rating, either losing re-election or the sitting government losing the presidency.

According to exit polls, voters disapproved of Biden's performance 59–39%, and disapproved of how things were going in the United States 73–25%. Also, voters judged the economy negatively 68–32%, and said that inflation had caused them hardship 75–24%. A YouGov poll conducted from November 6–7, 2024 found that if Biden had been the Democratic nominee, Trump would have won the popular vote 49–42%. Nonpartisan election forecasters, including The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, stated before the election that Biden would have been almost certain to lose.

Harris did improve compared to Biden among voters making over $100,000 a year. NBC News found that Trump made larger gains in counties with tougher housing markets.

Almost every sitting government worldwide facing election in 2024 lost support, including in South Africa, India, France, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Among democracies, over 80 percent saw the sitting government lose support compared to the last election. This is the first time this has ever happened since 1905 (when data was first recorded) and the first time in the history of democracy, as universal suffrage began in 1894.

All 50 states and the District of Columbia shifted rightward compared to 2020. Trump's gains in nearly all geographic areas and among nearly every demographic group provides strong evidence of a reaction against the sitting government. The shifts toward Trump were much less in the swing states where both campaigns focused compared to safe states. The two states with the largest shifts toward Trump, New York and New Jersey, were both won by Harris. Harris had very little room to fall in the swing states, given that Biden had won most of them by very small margins in 2020.

Statistician and election analyst Nate Silver argued before the election that the national electoral environment was difficult for Democrats. This view was also shared by The New York Times political analyst Nate Cohn. After the election, Silver felt that Harris was a replacement-level candidate who did much better than Biden would have, but was unable to separate herself from Biden's record and was negatively seen by swing voters due to her previous positions. Amy Walter, editor of the nonpartisan The Cook Political Report, also argued that the electoral environment was inherently difficult for Harris because the top issue for voters was inflation during the Biden-Harris administration.

Ronald Brownstein of The Atlantic, who spoke with members of Harris's campaign, argued that the extent of Biden's unpopularity and public discontent with the economy proved too much for Harris to overcome. Brownstein compared the election to the 1968 presidential election (when unpopular incumbent Lyndon B. Johnson withdrew from the race and Vice President Hubert Humphrey lost to Richard Nixon) and the 1980 presidential election (when unpopular incumbent Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan due to stagflation and the 1970s energy crisis). Members of Harris' campaign stated after the election that their internal polling never showed Harris ahead of Trump and they did not believe that Harris was the favorite to win the election. David Plouffe, a senior campaign advisor to Harris, claimed that even making the race competitive was a win for Harris' staff.

The opportunity to elect Harris as the first female U.S. president proved to be less important to voters than issues like the economy and immigration. Results of VoteCast, as reported by Fox News, find that 13% of voters chose "the fact that Kamala Harris would be the first female president" as the single most important factor to their vote. Even so, polls have shown that voters support backing a female candidate while also acknowledging the challenges they might face on the campaign trail. Surveys conducted in 2023 by Pew Research Center found that respondents believed that there were several reasons why there were fewer women than men in high political offices: that women "have to do more to prove themselves" than men, that women in politics face gender discrimination, and that many Americans are not ready to elect a woman to higher office. 18% in one of the polls said that it is extremely or very important to them personally that the United States elects a woman president in their lifetime. A September 2024 AP-NORC poll found that 34% of respondents thought that the fact that Kamala Harris is a woman would help her get elected. A slightly larger 38% thought that it would hurt her, while 26% did not think it would make a difference. An AP-NORC poll from December of the same year found that about one-quarter said that it was extremely or very likely that the country would elect a woman president in their lifetime. A January 2024 Gallup poll found that 93% of Americans would vote for a generally well-qualified person for president who happened to be a woman.

Voter analysis

An Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU) poll conducted by YouGov from December 2024 to January 2025 found that the most important issues affecting the vote of Biden 2020 voters that did not vote for Harris were "Ending Israel's violence in Gaza" (29%), "The economy" (24%), followed by "Medicare and Social Security," (12%) "Immigration and border security," (11%) "Healthcare," (10%) and "Abortion" (9%). The survey found swing state Biden 2020 non-Harris voters ranked Gaza as less important than non-swing state voters. The survey also found that 36% of these voters would have been more likely to vote for Harris if she "had pledged to break from President Biden's policy toward Gaza by promising to withhold additional weapons to Israel for committing human rights abuses against Palestinian civilians."

Turnout

An analysis released by Democratic-leaning data firm Catalist in May 2025 found that Trump's victory rested on support from voters who were less engaged with politics, as well as weakened support and turnout for Harris from a range of Democratic-leaning groups. Nearly half of the 2024 electorate cast ballots in the previous four federal elections, representing an increase of nine points from 2020 and seven points from 2016, and Harris won under 50 percent of these voters, outperforming Biden's and Hillary Clinton's respective performances. In contrast, Harris won 48 percent of voters who only voted in two or fewer of the previous four federal elections, underperforming Biden and Clinton, both of whom won at least 54 percent of those voters. Harris also won less than half of voters who did not cast a vote in 2020 but did so in 2024, compared to Biden and Clinton each winning roughly 55 percent of new voters in their respective elections; Catalist considered this Democratic underperformance to be unprecedented in their history of election analysis. Jennifer Agiesta of CNN reported that new and infrequent voters in 2024 were more likely to be from Democratic-leaning groups but also less likely to have college degrees, a trait increasingly tied to Republican support.

A Pew Research Center post-election analysis of voters who are listed as having voted in their state's voter turnout records who have also reported voting in a survey after the election similarly found a "more racially and ethnically diverse" electorate, one that was less engaged politically than in the four previous federal elections. More 2020 Trump voters (89%) than 2020 Biden voters (85%) also voted in 2024. 15% of those who voted for Biden in 2020 did not vote in the 2024 election. 78% of White voters supported Trump in 2024, a lower level of support for him among this group than in 2020 and 2016. Fewer Black voters supported Harris in 2024 than they did the Democratic candidates in the 2020 and 2016 elections.

Analyst assessments

The Independent's Jon Sopel wrote that the most pressing issues that decided Harris's defeat were matters Biden had been perceived as a failure at by the American public; these included the fact that, as part of the global 2021–2023 inflation surge, inflation went up by 20% and real wages had not adjusted to match, and the state of the Mexico–United States border. Sopel said that by "embracing the Biden agenda, [Harris] was simply tying herself to his unpopularity".

In a Time piece, Henry M. J. Tonks tied the result to the party's prioritization of professional class workers and suburbs over working class, blue-collar voters. He argued the shift away from working-class voters had been occurring since the late 1960s in response to the Vietnam War and the growth of the tech industry. Of the electoral jurisdictions that Harris won – 19 states, DC, and Nebraska's second congressional district – all except New Mexico had above-average educational attainment.

CNN's Edward-Isaac Dovere felt that some of Harris' problems, such as difficulties with her staff, could have been solved, but other problems such as her ties with Biden could not. Dovere mused that had Biden stepped down earlier, the Democratic Party might have had the time to launch a proper primary campaign. He also mused that Walz was chosen because he could not "outshine" her, and that this reflected her "newfound confidence and her long-standing insecurity". The Economic Times cited surveys showing "broad negative sentiment" about the economy, and Harris being "relentlessly hammered" by Trump during campaigns about this. The Economic Times cited University of Richmond School of Law professor Carl Tobias' appraisal of Trump's stance on immigration winning over Harris', and mentioned how Trump had increased his support from Hispanics, especially near the Mexican–American border and in areas impacted by recent immigration. Harris campaigning at multiple events with former Republican representative Liz Cheney has been suggested as a contributing factor as to why she lost.

Los Angeles Times's Noah Bierman felt Harris could not overcome being the "turn the page" candidate, and cited former president Barack Obama's lead strategist David Axelrod, who said: "If you're the vice president of an administration people want to fire, you're way behind the eight-ball to start." Bierman wrote that besides criminal context, Trump "never followed a script, scoffed at the rules and spoke directly to the economic and cultural anxieties of the country". In The New York Times, Timothy Shenk argued that Democrats failed to articulate a vision for the future other than being against Trump and did not lean into a message of economic populism that polled best with swing voters, but also that the election looked more like a rejection of Biden than the embrace of Trump. In another New York Times article, Nate Cohn analyzed exit polls showing Trump's gains among non-white and young voters, suggesting Trump's populist message resonated with many voters previously considered part of the Democratic Party's base. Jen Psaki, who served as Biden's first press secretary, suggested that Harris focusing on Anti-Trump Republicans was not a winning strategy.

Charlie Cook, founder of the nonpartisan The Cook Political Report, said that swing voters broke in favor of Trump due to anger over inflation associated with the Biden-Harris administration, causing Trump to sweep the swing states. However, Democrats did better in down-ballot races, meaning Trump did not have a strong coattail effect. The Atlantic's Ronald Brownstein argued that the Democratic Party's success in the 2022 midterm elections, when Trump was not on the ballot, had led them to underestimate Trump's support. Democrats also performed better than Harris in down-ballot races, suggesting voters likely assigned their blame over the economy on the Biden-Harris administration rather than the Democratic Party at-large.

The BBC's Courtney Subramanian said Harris "couldn't shake the anti-Biden sentiment that permeated much of the electorate", that she "failed to deliver a convincing argument about why she should lead the country", did not state a strategy to combat economic frustrations, and failed to address widespread concerns over immigration. Vox's Nicole Narea highlighted inflation outpacing wages in certain industries, rising unemployment, and rising consumer debt and falling savings as key economic indicators that Democrats "may have missed". In another Vox article, Andrew Prokop argued Harris suffered from a worldwide backlash to incumbents over inflation, as well as her struggles unifying the party over Gaza, failing to be a change candidate, and her difficulty in defending or abandoning positions she took during her 2020 presidential run.

Trump's victory

Although many conventional metrics indicated that the American economy had recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic (wages increased and inflation was in check), and although migrant crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border had declined significantly since earlier in the Biden administration, an AP article stated that Trump was able to convince voters to support him in 2024 by promising to fix the economy and block the flow of immigrants at the border. According to exit polls, voters whose top issues were the economy and immigration largely voted for Trump.

Time's Eric Cortellessa wrote that the thesis of Trump's campaign boiled down to this simple slogan: "Max out the men and hold the women". To accomplish this goal, Trump "relentlessly" emphasized the economy and immigration. Cortellessa also mentioned Trump's minimization of his numerous controversies and his success in having his criminal trials postponed until after the election. He said that Trump's "advanced age and increasingly incoherent trail rhetoric" were taken in stride by voters, and that "much of the country read Trump's legal woes as part of a larger corrupt conspiracy to deny him, and them, power". NPR wrote that "Americans have continued to chafe at higher than pre-pandemic prices and the lack of affordable housing", and that much of the voter placed the blame "squarely" on the Biden administration. NPR said demographics played an important role in the election, with White voters going up as a share of the electorate from 67% to 71% and Trump winning 46% of Latinos. NPR also noted that polls underestimated Trump's level of support in battleground states and across the nation.

The New York Times asserted that "[Trump] made one essential bet: that his grievances would become the grievances of the MAGA movement, and then the G.O.P., and then more than half the country. It paid off." The Times added that Trump's several setbacks actually benefited his public image and approval, as "his mug shot became a best-selling shirt. His criminal conviction inspired $100 million in donations in one day. The images of him bleeding after a failed assassination attempt became the symbol of what supporters saw as a campaign of destiny."

NBC noted a Democratic strategist's contention that male voters' belief that they were "being left behind, that society doesn't have a place for them" was a major factor in men's support for Trump. The network contended that Trump's approval ratings among non-college-educated and middle-income voters, especially among Latinos and young men, showed that he had made strides in his promise to assemble a multiracial, working-class coalition. Trump increased his support from Hispanics from 2020 to 2024, especially near the Mexican–American border and in areas impacted by recent immigration.

Several observers pointed to shifting habits in how Americans consume media and a growing lack of trust in mainstream news outlets. Trump embraced alternative media through podcasts and online streamers such as Joe Rogan, Adin Ross, Theo Von, Sneako and the Nelk Boys. The New York Times reported that such avenues "presented a way for Mr. Trump to sidestep more confrontational interviews with professional journalists, where he might face tough questions, fact-checks and detailed policy debates. The influencers he met with rarely challenged Mr. Trump, and often lavished him with praise." Observers also highlighted Trump's courting of the "manosphere", a collection of what The Guardian described as "male podcasters, influencers and public figures" that "marketed themselves as free-thinking pundits who evaded the bounds of political classification". NYU marketing professor Scott Galloway said "this was the testosterone podcast election". Post-election research showed that nearly 40% of young voters got their news from social media influencers, and that a majority of those influencers leaned right.

The New York Times reported that Trump's super PAC had joined a long list of presidential campaigns that made a "technological leap or innovation" while targeting key voters. The Times highlighted the use of targeted advertising of individual undecided voters on streaming video platforms that allowed the PAC to save money, while Harris largely targeted ads on streaming platforms by geography. It reported the Trump team's findings that the undecided electorate was younger, black, and Hispanic, and that such voters largely used streaming media over traditional broadcast television.

Journalist Elizabeth Spiers argued that Trump's strong support among young white men could be attributed to his campaign "channeling what psychologists call 'hegemonic masculinity'". Spiers added that "For men unhappy with their status, this view offers a group of people to blame, which feels more tangible than blaming systemic problems like rising economic inequality and the difficulty of adapting to technological and cultural changes."

Viewership